Kendrick signals a consolidation phase rather than active selling from DATs, reducing a potential source of incremental Bitcoin demand.

The report cites slowing institutional adoption via ETFs and political pressure on the Fed as factors shaping Bitcoin’s outlook.

The bank argues that the next Bitcoin rally will be driven almost entirely by ETF inflows, with corporate Bitcoin treasury purchases (DATs) likely to decline or be over.

Diminished demand has led to downgrades, with aggressive corporate buying by treasuries like MicroStrategy viewed as having run its course and future gains hinging on ETF inflows.

Future upside is expected to hinge on ETF inflows rather than treasury purchases, with zero new DAT buying expected going forward.

The belief in a four-year cycle weakening, as figures like Zhao and Wood note the halving pattern is disrupted and less predictive of price moves.

The article notes ongoing market analysis and targets, such as JPMorgan's $170,000 target linked to gold, while noting these are separate from Kendrick’s forecast.

A 36% drop from the October all-time high is viewed as a typical drawdown, not a crypto winter, according to Kendrick.

Standard Chartered lowers long-term Bitcoin targets, pushing the peak to 2030; price action around $90,000 prompts the revised forecast.

Despite the shift in drivers, the bank remains cautiously optimistic that Bitcoin will reach its long-term target as diversification toward Bitcoin and gold continues.

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 40% from the October high, reinforcing the revised outlook.

The bank does not expect a crypto winter but describes the next phase as a 'cold breeze' with fragiler upside.