Concentrated holder dynamics show wallets with at least 1 million XRP control about 74% of circulating supply, signaling potential supply pressure if accumulation continues.

Price recovery hinges on broader spot demand returning, as ETF demand alone reduces available supply but does not guarantee a rebound without stronger spot participation.

Overall, any meaningful upside requires ETF buying to align with stronger spot demand to overcome downstream supply constraints.

The analysis emphasizes on-chain indicators and institutional demand as signs of resilience amid near-term price weakness, supported by multiple data sources and charts.

Regulatory progress, including Ripple–SEC case resolution and the launch of spot XRP ETFs, plus EU MiCA approval for a euro-denominated stablecoin project, could reduce uncertainties for XRP.

XRP trades around $1.07 with key resistance at $1.10 and a path toward $1.20 and the 100-day moving average near $1.32, while support sits near $1.00 with further downside at $0.88 and $0.80, and the 100-day SMA trend remains downward for 2026.

The token has climbed about 3% on the day but remains roughly 73% below its mid-2025 peak of $4.00, amid a broad crypto bear market.

Looking at recent momentum, XRP hovers near $1.05 as it defends the $1 support after a weak month, with around 19% drop over the last 30 days and more than 7% decline over the past week.

ETF fund flows for XRP stay positive, with seven straight weeks of net inflows totaling about $144.69 million, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs show outflows, underscoring divergent demand.

Institutional demand persists despite weakness, with spot XRP ETFs delivering net inflows in the strongest week in over six weeks, and the XRP Ledger expanding into tokenized real-world assets totaling over $118 million.

Market activity shows a flush of speculative excess as open interest on major exchanges declines, suggesting forced selling may be easing but a rebound is not guaranteed.

On-chain activity is rising, with daily active addresses increasing from about 23,000 mid-June to nearly 39,500 today, indicating higher network participation despite weak price action.