Ethereum trades near $3,905, with price unable to reclaim the 50- and 100-day moving averages, signaling near-term resistance and a need to close above roughly $4,050–$4,150 to renew upside momentum.

A daily close above the $4,050–$4,150 resistance could reestablish bullish momentum and target $4,300–$4,500, where supply pressure has previously appeared.

The market is watching whether Ethereum can reclaim the $4,000 level as price action tightens ahead of November for a clearer bullish signal.

Analysts are divided on fundamentals versus macro risk: network activity, Layer-2 progress, and rising staking support bullish the case, while weaker market structure signals downside risk.

The split persists: strong on-chain fundamentals and Layer-2 expansion contrast with concerns about market structure and potential pullbacks.

Macro conditions are supportive for risk assets, with expectations of easing and better liquidity that could attract capital into Ethereum as a key hub for altcoin liquidity and settlement.

A risk-on shift is possible if the Fed cuts rates and QT ends, potentially boosting inflows into risk assets like ETH.

On-chain data shows a large exodus from exchanges: over 200,000 ETH (about $780 million) withdrawn in 48 hours, signaling accumulation and strengthened holder conviction.

The withdrawal of more than 200,000 ETH in 48 hours points to accumulation and rising investor conviction rather than immediate distribution.

Key support sits around $3,800, with a breakdown toward $3,500 possible if sentiment deteriorates, though the 200-day moving average near $3,200 suggests the longer-term bullish setup remains intact.

If the $3,800 support holds, the path to $3,500 remains possible; the 200-day moving average near $3,200 provides a cushion for the longer-term bullish outlook.