EU Faces Doubling Wildfires by 2100: Urgent Call for Proactive Fire Management and Policy Overhaul
May 19, 2025
A recent study warns that climate change, drought, urban expansion, and land-use changes are set to double the number of wildfires in the European Union by the end of the century, particularly affecting southern countries such as Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, and Greece.
The report advocates for a significant shift in EU policies, moving from a focus on fire suppression to proactive fire management and adaptation strategies that aim to mitigate damages rather than merely reduce the burned area.
While countries like Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece have established national wildfire management policies, the lack of coordinated EU policies presents substantial challenges, especially for managing cross-border wildfires.
Experts emphasize the necessity of anticipating wildfire events through investments in prevention and adaptation, highlighting the importance of landscape management and fire literacy.
The report, produced by the European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), also underscores the chronic health impacts associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter from wildfires.
In Portugal, a report presented in Brussels indicates an alarming "increase in mortality" linked to wildfires, estimating that between 31 and 189 deaths occurred due to smoke exposure from 2015 to 2018.
The psychological effects of wildfires, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety, are increasingly recognized, impacting both adults and children for years after such incidents.
Projections for Portugal reveal a drastic increase in high-intensity wildfires, with expectations of up to 40 additional days of elevated fire risk each year in southern and eastern regions by the end of the century.
Future projections indicate that wildfire-prone regions will continue to be vulnerable, exacerbated by changing land-use patterns.
The EASAC report, titled "Evolving Wildfires - Policy Options for a Fire-Literate and Adapted Europe," includes contributions from experts such as Tiago Oliveira and José Cardoso Pereira.
To effectively address these challenges, the report calls for strengthening institutional capacity, enhancing cross-border collaboration, and improving resource sharing among EU member states.
Historically, Spain had the highest wildfire statistics during the 1980s and 1990s, but Portugal has taken the lead in the 21st century, with notable exceptions like the catastrophic fires in Greece in 2007.
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