Experts Warn: Carbon Capture Alone Insufficient, Immediate Emission Reductions Essential for Climate Goals
September 3, 2025
Emerging carbon capture technologies, such as mineralizing CO2 in basalt formations, could expand storage capacity, but experts warn that reliance on CCS alone is insufficient and immediate emission reductions are essential.
The study emphasizes that CCS should primarily be used for hard-to-decarbonize sectors like cement, aviation, and agriculture, rather than prolonging fossil fuel infrastructure.
Carbon storage is a limited resource that must be managed responsibly, with a focus on reducing fossil fuel emissions directly instead of relying solely on underground storage.
Researchers estimate a safe global capacity for geologic CO2 storage at roughly 1,460 gigatons, considering risks such as seismic activity, environmental protection, and proximity to human settlements.
An interactive website has been developed to help policymakers and the public explore regional and country-level storage potential, supporting informed decision-making and international cooperation.
Storage capacity varies geographically, with countries like the U.S. and Canada having more suitable sites, while European nations face restrictions, potentially requiring storage in regions like Africa.
Significant regional disparities exist, with nations such as Russia, the U.S., China, Brazil, and Australia holding substantial reserves, whereas others like India and many EU countries face higher risks and environmental constraints.
The study suggests that most of the available storage capacity could be exhausted by around 2125, with the global capacity potentially being exceeded before 2200 if climate policies are delayed or ineffective.
Actual storage capacity is limited and should be regarded as a rare resource, requiring careful management to prevent overuse and irreversible environmental impacts.
Utilizing the full capacity of underground storage could potentially reduce global temperatures by 0.7°C, but this benefit should be preserved for future generations.
The study focused on low-risk sedimentary basins suitable for storage, excluding sites with high leakage risks, seismic activity, or political instability, and was led by scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
A recent study in Nature reveals that the Earth's capacity for underground CO2 storage is ten times less than previously estimated, significantly limiting CCS as a climate mitigation tool, with potential to reverse only about 0.7°C of warming.
The research highlights that risks such as leakage, earthquakes, groundwater contamination, and proximity to populations have led to a much smaller safe storage capacity than earlier models suggested.
Carbon storage should be viewed as an exhaustible resource requiring responsible, equitable management, especially by fossil fuel-rich countries like the US, Russia, China, Brazil, and Australia, which have larger reserves.
Decisions about storage use must involve considerations of fairness, responsibility, and intergenerational justice, with storage capacity seen as a global common resource that needs careful international oversight.
Fossil fuel-rich nations could utilize depleted oil and gas reservoirs for storage, raising questions of international responsibility and justice, but the overall capacity remains limited.
While current estimates suggest ample future capacity, experts caution that technological, political, and economic challenges could limit large-scale deployment of CCS.
Over-reliance on CCS could hinder efforts to reduce ongoing emissions, especially since current models often overestimate safe storage capacity by ignoring risks.
Geological storage space should be regarded as a scarce resource, primarily used to halt and reverse warming rather than merely offset emissions.
Deploying negative emissions technologies like direct air capture could potentially reverse up to 0.7°C of global warming, emphasizing their importance in climate strategies.
Large-scale CCS depends heavily on policy support, risk management, and addressing challenges like leakage, seismic risks, environmental impacts, and geopolitical issues.
Policymakers should develop explicit plans that balance fossil fuel use, carbon removal, and storage, with an understanding that geologic storage is finite and must be managed prudently.
Experts recommend using underground storage sparingly, prioritizing zero-emission energy sources and negative emission technologies to effectively manage atmospheric CO2.
Strategic use of CCS is essential, but over-reliance could lead to exceeding storage limits, which would constrain climate mitigation efforts.
Current CCS deployment is limited, capturing only a small fraction of emissions, and the economically viable storage capacity is much lower than the theoretical potential.
The revised safe storage capacity was determined by excluding high-risk or economically unviable sites, such as areas near cities or seismic zones.
Leakage from storage sites could cause environmental harm, including groundwater contamination and the release of toxic metals, underscoring the need for careful site selection.
Experts emphasize that the limited storage capacity necessitates careful planning across sectors and future generations to avoid irreversible environmental impacts.
Integrating safe, targeted carbon storage with rapid reductions in fossil fuel use is crucial for meeting climate goals like those in the Paris Agreement.
The study underscores that carbon storage should be treated as a 'scarce resource' that must be deployed strategically to maximize climate benefits and prevent overuse.
Exceeding storage limits could only reverse about 0.4°C of warming, highlighting the importance of managing this resource wisely.
Critics point out that CCS is expensive, often underdelivers, and may prolong reliance on fossil fuels, making immediate emissions reductions even more critical.
Global carbon storage is currently minimal, with only about 0.05 gigatons stored annually, illustrating the gap between potential and actual deployment.
CCS captures a tiny fraction of global emissions, emphasizing that it cannot be relied upon as a primary mitigation strategy.
Current models overestimate safe storage capacity by ignoring risks, and CCS alone won't be enough to keep warming below 2°C.
CCS involves capturing CO2 from industrial sources and injecting it into underground reservoirs for permanent storage.
Experts warn that significant storage limitations and economic challenges mean CCS cannot be relied upon solely, reinforcing the need for comprehensive climate policies.
Environmental and industry experts acknowledge CCS's potential but stress that its limitations require it to be part of a broader climate strategy.
If large volumes of CO2 are stored underground, global capacity could be exhausted by 2200, emphasizing the finite nature of this resource.
Achieving the Paris Agreement's goals depends on long-term geologic carbon storage to reach net-zero and net-negative emissions, essential for stabilizing temperatures.
Some scientists debate the accuracy of capacity estimates, but experts agree that reducing fossil fuel use remains the primary mitigation approach.
CCS should be viewed as a supplementary tool, not an unlimited solution, given the limited capacity and associated risks.
The study underscores that reliance solely on CCS could hinder efforts to cut ongoing emissions and address climate change effectively.
Summary based on 13 sources
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Sources

Nature • Sep 3, 2025
Earth’s capacity to store carbon could max out surprisingly soon
Nature • Sep 3, 2025
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage
