Industry forecasts from Allianz Trade project 24,500 firm insolvencies in 2025, about 1% higher than 2024, with potential trade-conflict impacts; for 2027, a decline to roughly 23,500 insolvencies (about 4% lower than 2025) anticipated, aided by government stimulus and improving economy.

Analysts say the insolvency wave is nearing its peak, noting a rise in corporate bankruptcies through 2024, reaching a record high since 2015 with 21,812 cases.

Forecasts for the current year point to more corporate bankruptcies than 2024, with Allianz Trade predicting a further 1% increase next year.

Contributing factors include skilled-labor shortages driven by demographics, bureaucratic burdens, higher labor costs from wage and social charges, and sector pressures like high energy costs in industry and rising costs in hospitality.

The government is pursuing measures to shield businesses, including potential tax relief, accelerated depreciation for machinery, and energy-cost reductions for manufacturing, though doubts remain on curbing the insolvency trend.

Factors driving insolvencies include high energy costs, bureaucracy, reduced consumer spending, and the expiration of pandemic-era relief rules.

The article notes that corona-era exemptions have expired, energy costs are elevated, and global trade tensions persist, with data reflecting insolvencies after court decisions.

Researchers emphasize the surge stems from weak demand, structural market changes, and sector-specific challenges, risking a prolonged high insolvency environment in Germany.

Insolvency filings typically lag initial filing decisions by about three months, explaining the reporting delay.

Overall context remains: the economy is stagnant and the insolvency wave persists despite policy measures; the situation remains fragile and influenced by macro factors and policy choices.

The burden is amplified by high energy costs, extensive bureaucracy, and cautious consumer behavior as temporary pandemic relief ends.

Recent data show a roughly 10% rise in September and a 12.2% rise in August, with the DIHK chief analyst highlighting the trend as a record.

Meanwhile, startups rise: the first three quarters saw about 99,300 new businesses, up 9.5% year over year, while around 74,300 larger firms ceased operations and total Gewerbe closures rose 1.1% to about 360,700.