Europe’s security hinges on strong support for Ukraine and rapid defense spending, as policymakers warn that accelerating armament is essential to deter Moscow and prevent a potential Kremlin attack in the coming years.

Germany’s continued wartime support for Ukraine is framed as vital to both Kyiv’s defense and wider Euro‑Atlantic security, contributing to a just and lasting end to the war in NATO’s view.

At the Den Haag NATO summit, leaders argued that robust Ukrainian defense and higher defense budgets would deter Putin, with timelines suggested around 2027–2031 based on third‑party estimates.

Experts say guarantees would be discussed more thoroughly after a ceasefire emerges and Russia shows genuine interest in peace.

Defense Minister Pistorius has signaled that only Putin can end the war immediately, portraying him as the chief obstacle to peace amid ongoing ceasefire talks.

US and EU cooperation is necessary to secure Europe’s stability, with a peaceful settlement requiring credible guarantees.

There is support for involving broader European structures in negotiations while cautioning against assigning fixed roles, aiming to strengthen a long‑standing diplomatic framework.

Rutte outlined multiple risk windows (2027, 2029, 2031) where weakened momentum could create dangerous gaps, noting Putin’s willingness to incur losses to sustain the war.

Delays could create dangerous gaps in defense readiness by 2027–2031, illustrating Kremlin resolve through estimates of Russian spending and casualties.

During a US‑Ukraine format meeting, discussions covered a 20‑point plan and progress on a multilateral security guarantees framework and economic development assistance.

Experts stress that post‑war security guarantees are essential for Ukraine to deter a future Russian attack, with the outcome of US‑led efforts depending on hard work from all parties.

Officials note ongoing but uncertain peace talks and warn of Russia potentially threatening NATO after rebuilding, underscoring the need for reinforced defense.