Italy faces a long-term population decline, projected to fall from about 58.9 million at the start of 2025 to 55 million by mid‑century and to 45.8 million by 2080 due to aging and higher death rates than births.

The number of people living alone is expected to rise substantially, with a 16% increase from 2025 to 2050 and a growing share of elderly individuals living solo.

The working-age population (ages 15–64) is forecast to shrink from 63.4% to 55.3%, exerting more pressure on pensions, healthcare and public welfare systems.

In related news, Italy extended the suspension of the EU border-free Schengen area with Spain for another 15 days after an initial month‑long pause tied to migrant movements into Ceuta.

Experts say this demographic shift signals a deeper structural crisis that migration has only temporarily softened, even as government efforts to boost births continue.

There is ongoing discussion and commentary about why Italy’s birth rate remains stubbornly low and the political debate over family policy reforms.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made boosting the birth rate a priority since 2022, but those policies have produced limited results.

The aging trend is expected to strain the economy in the long run, prompting Meloni to focus on birth-rate policies and even appoint a dedicated 'births minister'.

Meloni’s 2022 emphasis on family policies and reversing the birth trend has not reversed the downward trajectory so far.

Gender disparities in the job market persist, though female participation is projected to rise from 57.8% in 2025 to 64.2% by 2050, narrowing the participation gap.

Immigration could partially mitigate population decline but is unlikely to reverse it, according to Istat.

The report relies on Istat projections released as of August 31, 2026.