Yen Surges as Tokyo Inflation Spurs BOJ Rate Hike Speculation; Global Markets React

November 29, 2024
Yen Surges as Tokyo Inflation Spurs BOJ Rate Hike Speculation; Global Markets React
  • On November 29, 2024, the Japanese yen surged to a six-week high of 150 per dollar, driven by unexpected inflation in Tokyo that heightened expectations for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo's core consumer price index rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, exceeding market forecasts and indicating potential inflationary pressures, although some analysts remain cautious about an imminent rate hike.

  • Analysts at ING noted that the recent acceleration in inflation, coupled with economic recovery, increases the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike.

  • If implemented, the anticipated December hike would mark the BOJ's third increase in 2024, following nearly a decade of negative interest rates as the bank adjusts its policy in response to rising wages and inflation.

  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the central bank's commitment to further increasing interest rates, citing a 'virtuous cycle' of higher wages and stable inflation.

  • Despite rising inflation, Mizuho Securities strategist Shoki Omori suggested the BOJ may maintain current policy settings due to concerns over declining consumer spending.

  • In other markets, gold prices fell 2.7% for the week, trading at $2,638.29 per ounce.

  • Asian shares fell on the same day, with MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan decreasing by 0.3%.

  • The U.S. dollar experienced a 1.4% decline against major peers this week, as speculation for a U.S. rate cut in December grew, with futures indicating a 63% chance for a quarter-point cut.

  • This dollar weakness allowed the British pound to reach its highest level since November 20, 2024.

  • Wall Street futures rose by 0.1%, while Treasury yields eased, with ten-year yields falling to 4.240%, the lowest in a month.

  • Meanwhile, German inflation data for November fell short of expectations, raising concerns about eurozone inflation readings set to be released later.

Summary based on 5 sources


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