RBI's December Meeting Spurs Hopes for CRR Cut Amid Weak Growth, Bond Demand Surges

December 5, 2024
RBI's December Meeting Spurs Hopes for CRR Cut Amid Weak Growth, Bond Demand Surges
  • In recent sessions, foreign investors have shown renewed interest in Indian government bonds, with net purchases exceeding Rs 9,000 crore ($1.06 billion) over the last four sessions.

  • Manish Bhargava, CEO at Straits Investment Management, noted that India's high yields present an appealing carry trade opportunity for investors.

  • Overall, market participants largely expect the RBI to implement measures that could ease monetary policy in response to the current economic conditions.

  • Market participants are eagerly anticipating the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision scheduled for December 6, 2024.

  • Weak economic growth data has heightened expectations that the RBI may act sooner to support the economy, with many anticipating a reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from the current 4.5%.

  • A potential 50 basis point reduction in the CRR could inject approximately Rs 1.1 trillion into the banking system, significantly boosting demand for bonds.

  • The yield on 10-year bonds has decreased to three-year lows, with the spread between bond yields and the repo rate reaching a seven-year low, indicating potential monetary easing.

  • However, in November, foreign investors had heavily sold bonds, with net selling in the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) exceeding Rs 10,000 crore due to elevated US yields following the 2024 presidential election.

  • Economist Dhiraj Nim supports the idea of a rate cut, citing significant downside risks to growth and a negative output gap.

  • The favorable outlook on bonds is largely driven by the anticipation of monetary policy easing, which is influencing increased investor inflows.

  • Despite the previous sell-off, the attractiveness of yields and the rupee's relative stability among emerging market currencies have driven renewed demand for bonds.

Summary based on 1 source


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