Merlin’s 1H26 revaluation is expected to reflect in results, driven by an expanding Iberian data center pipeline, including a Phase I value of €19.3 million per megawatt versus €9.6 million per megawatt of investment cost.

J.P. Morgan maintains an overweight rating and lifts the December 2027 price target to €19.00 from €18.50, with Merlin trading around €14.79 as of June 1.

J.P. Morgan places Merlin Properties on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of the first-half 2026 results, noting a 5% gap between its FY26 FFO estimate and Bloomberg consensus due to anticipated stronger revenue and cost progression.

In Lisbon, Merlin is progressing toward 340 MW of data center capacity, holding 37% of total planned IT capacity in Iberia—the highest share among peers, ahead of Edgemode and Start Campus.

Projected EBITDA and margins are set to improve, with adjusted EBITDA rising from €399 million in FY25 to €643 million by FY28 and margins advancing from 70.7% to 73.2%, while revenue climbs from €565 million to €878 million over the same period.

An upside scenario adds 200 extra megawatts, potentially lifting Phase III capacity to 612 megawatts and stabilising gross rental income at €935 million.

Morgan’s FY26 FFO is €0.58 per share, suggesting flat growth despite a recent capital raise, versus a Bloomberg consensus of €0.55 and a potential upside if results align with the higher FFO.

J.P. Morgan’s projections show gross rental income rising from €542 million in FY25 to €1.80 billion by 2032, with data centers expanding from about 6% to 65% of the portfolio and office exposure shrinking from roughly 53% to 20%.

Phase III data center capacity totals 412 MW, with stabilized gross rental income of €656 million and €4.47 billion in capital expenditure, including €768 million raised via a March 26, 2026 accelerated bookbuild.

Debt dynamics show net debt to EBITDA easing from 10.1x in FY25 to 8.5x in FY26, then rising to 9.7x by FY28 as capital expenditure accelerates.