SpaceX trades at a lofty valuation—roughly 100 times 2025 revenue—with a consolidated net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 and around $4.3 billion in Q1 2026, including the AI unit acquired this year, signaling that profitability is not yet solid on a full-year basis.

An unusual lockup structure could allow roughly 20% of shares to unlock around mid-year, potentially creating near-term selling pressure as early as weeks after the IPO.

Launch services remain a dominant, hard-to-replicate moat, with SpaceX responsible for more than four-fifths of all mass launched into orbit in 2025, underscoring scarcity value for the stock.

The author adopts a cautious stance: SpaceX’s business is impressive and Starlink could justify future value, but current pricing implies high upside coupled with risk, suggesting a better entry point may come later rather than chasing post-IPO gains now.

SpaceX marked its first day of public trading after 24 years as a private company, closing about 19% higher and valuing the company near $2.1 trillion, making it one of the most valuable U.S. firms on day one.

Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet arm, is the main revenue and profitability engine, delivering about $11.4 billion in 2025 (roughly 61% of total revenue) with around $4.4 billion in operating income and a 39% operating margin; its subscriber base grew from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 10 million by Q1 2026, with recent price hikes potentially widening margins.