Vistra reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion for the second quarter, up 31% year over year, and reaffirmed its 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion with 2027 guidance of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion.

The stock appears near a trough due to regulatory headwinds, but long-term contract wins and planned acquisitions could unlock upside not yet reflected in current guidance.

Vistra remains an independent power producer with long-term PPAs for major tech clients, including a 20-year deal with Meta for 2,609 MW of carbon-free nuclear energy and capacity upgrades in PJM, as well as a similar agreement with Amazon Web Services.

Vistra plans to acquire Cogentrix, adding about 5,500 MW from 10 natural gas facilities, whichmanagement expects to contribute roughly $700 million in incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

The stock has been volatile and trades around $147 after retreating from a 52-week high, amid regulatory concerns and data center growth worries.

Analysts expect 2026 EPS of about $8.97 with sustained double-digit earnings growth in 2027 (roughly 20%) and 2028 (about 17%), supporting a valuation around 16.6x 2026 estimated earnings.