A recent report from Météo-France predicts that by the year 2100, average temperatures in Paris could mirror those currently seen in Montpellier, while southern France may experience temperatures akin to those of Andalusia, exceeding 18°C.

These projections stem from the 'Reference Warming Trajectory for Climate Change Adaptation' (TRACC), which the government mandates for all public policies.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, current greenhouse gas reduction policies are leading the world toward a concerning warming of 3.1°C by the end of the century.

Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy director of climatology at Météo-France, noted that simulations predict a global temperature rise of 3°C by 2100 if significant efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions are not made.

The report forecasts severe heatwaves lasting one to two months along the Mediterranean, along with 40 to 50 tropical nights annually in northern cities, and the complete disappearance of alpine glaciers.

Seasonal warming is expected to be more pronounced in summer, with temperatures rising approximately 1°C more than in winter.

Regional disparities in temperature increases are anticipated, with southeastern regions and the Alps experiencing greater warming compared to the northwest.

While winter precipitation is projected to increase by about 15% nationwide, summer rainfall may decrease by 20%, particularly in the South-West.

Although temperature projections are clearer, the report emphasizes that precipitation trends remain uncertain, with an expected overall annual decrease of 2%.

Météo-France plans to release a follow-up report in January 2025, which will focus on climate variability and the impacts of extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.

The ongoing consultation for the third national climate adaptation plan (Pnacc) will conclude on December 27, 2024, aiming to guide France's response to future climate challenges.

The climate change scenario presented in the report is classified as 'intermediate' and will inform discussions surrounding the Pnacc.