Michel Barnier, a prominent figure in the right-wing camp and former Prime Minister, led in the first round of Paris's 2nd constituency legislative by-election with 45.2% of the votes, and is poised to face socialist candidate Frédérique Bredin in the upcoming second round.

Barnier is likely to become the only Les Républicains (LR) deputy in Paris, as the city's 18 constituencies have been divided among the left and Macronists since 2022, with this district considered a stronghold for the right.

The 2nd constituency covers parts of the 5th, 6th, and 7th arrondissements, and Barnier's campaign has garnered support from key figures like Edouard Philippe and LR leader Bruno Retailleau, emphasizing his strong establishment backing.

Barnier's main opponent, Frédérique Bredin, a seasoned politician and former minister, has sought to capitalize on divisions within the right-wing camp and has support from notable figures like Gilles Le Gendre.

Despite initial internal party tensions, including opposition from Rachida Dati who suspected Barnier's municipal ambitions, his campaign gained momentum after Dati withdrew, and he publicly pledged to be a loyal deputy for the new government.

Barnier's candidacy was also supported by the Renaissance party, although there was some displeasure over his choice of Horizons member Florence Berthout as his substitute.

The election was triggered by the invalidation of the previous candidate Jean Laussucq's victory due to campaign finance irregularities, and the race remains highly competitive with a low turnout of around 26%.

Barnier, aged 74, has long considered the district a political base, despite previously representing Savoie, and he cast his vote via proxy due to registration issues.

The results, with Barnier leading and Bredin close behind, reflect the constituency's traditional right-leaning stance, and the second round is scheduled for September 28, 2025.

The election's outcome is significant in the broader context of French politics, potentially influencing the political landscape ahead of the second round and highlighting ongoing shifts in Paris's diverse arrondissements.

Rachida Dati, the mayor of the 7th arrondissement, congratulated Barnier on his first-round lead and called for voter mobilization for the upcoming vote.

The election saw a very high abstention rate, with nearly 75% of voters abstaining, underscoring the challenges of voter engagement in this low-turnout contest.