Publish and debate the distribution mid-next week, then determine how many migrants each country will relocate or contribute, anchored by a mandatory minimum of 30,000 relocations annually and a final December decision.

Analysts warn that achieving a balanced, acceptable policy is extremely tricky because all sides fear being seen as getting a better deal.

The new system would classify EU states by migratory pressure, requiring those under pressure to relocalize a portion of asylum seekers or pay 20,000 euros per person.

EU plans to relocate at least 30,000 asylum seekers per year under a solidarity scheme designed to ease pressure on frontline countries such as Spain, Greece, and Italy.

Member states will be categorized by migratory pressure, with under-pressure countries expected to take in a share or provide 20,000-euro per person contributions.

France highlights its maritime rescues of migrants aiming for the UK, part of broader debates about responsibility and past actions.

Ambiguity remains over who bears financial and relocation responsibilities amid rising right-wing sentiment and calls for stricter immigration controls.

Examples cited to illustrate pressure and capacity include Sweden’s high asylum applications, Belgium’s full reception centers, Germany’s influx of Ukrainian refugees, and France’s maritime rescues.

Sweden’s roughly 300,000 asylum applications over a decade, Belgium’s full reception centers, Germany’s more than a million Ukrainian refugees since 2022, and France’s Channel rescues are cited as benchmarks.

Determining which countries are under migratory pressure is highly contested, with states lobbying to shape Brussels’ methodology and citing their own experiences.

Tensions among frontline EU states like Italy, Greece, and Spain and newer arrivals like Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands over who processes asylum claims and prevents onward movement, fueling a cautious, low-trust negotiating environment.

Frontline members feel blamed for migration pushing deeper into the bloc, while other states worry about political risks tied to broader immigration.

Disagreements among Germany, Italy, and Greece over responsibility and perceived shifts in migration flows contribute to mutual distrust in talks.

The EU Commission is set to unveil a proposal next week to frame negotiations on each country’s intake or financial contributions, targeting at least 30,000 relocations per year with allocations decided by year-end.

The proposal will guide discussions on asylum seeker distribution and financial commitments, with a December deadline for deciding relocation allocations.

Brussels is struggling to agree on distributing at least 30,000 asylum seekers across member states by Christmas under a 2024 reform of migratory policy.

All 27 member states claim to be under migratory pressure and seek influence over the calculation method, highlighting Sweden, Belgium, Germany, and France as examples.

Disagreements persist over how to define and measure migratory pressure, with states pushing to influence the methodology.

EU diplomats note pervasive anxiety among member states about landing favorable terms, amid fears others may secure better deals or shirk responsibilities.

The political landscape is highly sensitive as obligations shift, carrying domestic political risk and fueling mistrust about others’ commitments.