France faces a continuing political crisis as the National Assembly rejected the revenue side of the 2026 budget, prompting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to pursue a strategy of voting on absolute priorities—security, energy, agriculture, and state reform—separately to avoid another full-budget showdown.

In the same vein, lawmakers have rejected the revenue portion near-unanimously, pushing Lecornu to seek budget votes on individual priorities instead of a comprehensive budget package.

Analysts argue the political class must demonstrate the ability to compromise; without it, governing parties risk ceding ground to extremes and facing a decisive defeat.

Olivier notes a lack of frankness among major figures about the need to curb social-state generosity, with Éric Zemmour seen as the only candidate candid about the economic realities, though with slim chances of winning.

He warns that no major figure is openly advocating sacrifices, leaving public spending still too high while Zemmour is perceived as honest about the reality.

Even a temporary law to keep services running would be costly, potentially prompting significant military cuts and delays in police recruitment.

The author deems the government's approach a futile exercise that exposes a broken parliamentary process after hours of debate produced incoherent results.

Possible paths include temporary financial measures, decree-based rules if budgets stall, potential reshuffles, and a growing focus on the 2027 presidential race with Marine Le Pen’s camp and other major parties.

Analyst Gerald Olivier argues the core problem is a long-standing lack of government and parliamentary majority, leading to credibility issues domestically and internationally.

The broader view from Olivier is that France lacks a stable government and majority, undermining the credibility of its program and signaling a sick, unstable state.

France risks economic and credit downgrades, with signals of recession and uncertain tax status that could erode its international credibility and influence in Europe.

Downgrades could slow investment and weaken France’s standing in Europe as fiscal strains mount elsewhere as well.

There is concern about a new budget round in February near municipal elections, prompting opposition from local officials; RN and LFI lawmakers call for dissolution or an early presidential election, respectively.

Macron’s political capital has eroded since the 2022 elections and the 2024 dissolution of the Assembly intensified fragmentation, with a forecast of around 18 more months of instability and possible government reshuffles.

The crisis has diminished Macron’s momentum, worsening governance after the Assembly’s dissolution in 2024 and deepening parliamentary fragmentation.

Critics describe the approach as a tactical delay that could damage France’s credibility at home and abroad, with Senate budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson calling it chaotic and ill-timed.

Budget debates are increasingly a vehicle for 2027 presidential strategy, as candidates position themselves before primaries and nominations.

Although MPs nearly unanimously rejected the revenue side, Lecornu says budget votes remain possible through renewed government consultations with parties.

If the budget fails to pass by year-end, France could resort to a temporary financial law based on the previous year’s budget for up to 70 days, or, as a constitutional fallback, rule by decree.

With Macron unable to stand again, 2027 contenders include Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, Bruno Retailleau, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, though analysts stress the need for candor about debt and high spending.