This shift marks the AfD as the strongest party at the federal level, reflecting a significant change in voter preferences and a challenge to traditional parties.

Furthermore, the current German federal government, a coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP, appears unlikely to secure a majority based on these results, with each party polling well below the 50% threshold.

The latest Forsa poll reveals that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to a record high, leading the CDU/CSU by three percentage points with 27% support, surpassing the CDU/CSU's 24%, which has declined slightly.

Experts caution that polls have inherent uncertainties due to factors like declining party loyalty and short-term decision-making, and should be viewed as snapshots rather than definitive forecasts.

Voter confidence in political competence remains low across parties, with only a small percentage trusting major parties, and a significant 47% believe no party has sufficient competence.

Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU remains behind, with 26% support, and their support has stagnated at around 25%, indicating a decline in their electoral confidence.

The poll also highlights that Merz's personal approval ratings are at a low, with only about 26-29% expressing satisfaction with his leadership, which could influence the broader political landscape.

Dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU leadership has risen sharply, with recent polls indicating dissatisfaction increasing from 45% in June to 65% in September.

The rise of the AfD is partly attributed to internal challenges within the CDU and perceived failures to meet voter expectations, especially after Merz’s campaign promises of a different approach.

These polling results are particularly significant in the context of upcoming elections and the shifting political landscape in Germany.

Despite gains in opinion polls, the AfD has yet to make a major impact in local elections, such as in North Rhine-Westphalia, where traditional parties still dominate.

Overall, public satisfaction with Merz remains low, with only about 26-29% approval, reflecting a negative trend that could impact future political dynamics.