A new INSA poll shows the AfD surging to a record 28% in the Sunday trend for Bild am Sonntag, widening its lead over the CDU/CSU at 24% as of mid-April 2026.

Other major pollsters corroborate a strong AfD showing, with YouGov at 27% for the AfD and 23% for the Union, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Forsa also place the AfD atop recent surveys.

The AfD is described as the leading party in Germany according to ZDF Politbarometer, signaling a historic shift in public support.

If these trends hold, the traditional black-red coalition would lose its parliamentary majority.

Polls carry uncertainties due to fluctuating party loyalties and short decision windows, reflecting opinions at the time of surveying rather than final election outcomes.

Wider caveats note that declining party loyalty and rapid short-term decisions affect weighting and accuracy, with surveys not serving as forecasts.

The report explains polling methods (ZDF Politbarometer and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) and discusses potential implications for Germany’s governing coalition.

The poll surveyed 1,203 people between April 20 and 24, assessing voting intentions if a federal election were held on a Sunday.

Merz’s centre-right coalition has weakened in support amid issues such as rising oil prices tied to the Iran-related conflict.

About 11% of votes would go to parties that fail to cross the electoral threshold, implying a governing majority would require at least 45% support among parties that pass the threshold.

Multiple caveats emphasize that shifting loyalties and shorter decision timelines can influence poll results and weighting."},{

Current standings show the SPD at 14%, the Greens at 12%, the Left at 11%, with the CDU at 24%, and FDP and BSW around 3% each, while 5% vote for other parties.