Barclays Shifts Focus to Bonds Over Stocks Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

March 27, 2025
Barclays Shifts Focus to Bonds Over Stocks Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
  • Year-to-date, the benchmark for global equities has only risen by 0.55%, underscoring worries that higher tariffs will negatively impact inflation and corporate profits.

  • In a notable shift, Barclays has prioritized fixed income investments over equities for the first time in several quarters, citing increased policy risks.

  • This change comes in the wake of President Trump's recent tariff increases, including a substantial 25% levy on auto imports, which have injected uncertainty into global financial markets.

  • Barclays anticipates a significant slowdown in both U.S. and global economic growth, projecting a 1.5% growth rate for the U.S. and 2.9% globally for 2025, though these forecasts may be overly optimistic given the worst-case tariff scenarios.

  • Reflecting these concerns, the firm has revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 down from 6,600 points to 5,900 points, marking the lowest forecast among Wall Street brokerages as the index recently closed at 5,712.20.

  • In contrast, the U.S. stock market has struggled, with the benchmark down nearly 3% amid these economic uncertainties.

  • Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds have seen yields decline from a peak of 4.8090% to 4.3595%, indicating a flight to safety among investors.

  • Analysts at Barclays have noted that while Western economies are grappling with rising prices and poor fiscal outlooks, fixed income assets currently present a less risky investment compared to equities.

Summary based on 1 source


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