In 2024, the U.S. imported $438.9 billion worth of goods from China, underscoring its significant role as a trading partner, second only to Mexico.

Apollo Global Management forecasts that the economic fallout from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration will trigger a recession by the summer of 2025.

While many analysts on Wall Street predict a recession in 2025, Torsten Slok's outlook is notably more pessimistic, contrasting with others who foresee a 'detox period' instead of a full recession.

Some analysts believe that a 'pull-forward' in orders before the tariffs may help alleviate immediate shortages, as current stock levels remain adequate despite a drop in demand.

According to a timeline presented by Slok, consumers may begin to notice empty shelves in stores as early as May 2025, with significant supply chain disruptions expected to peak by mid-to-late May.

The timeline outlines critical events: tariffs were announced on April 2, a halt in containership arrivals is anticipated by early-to-mid May, and trucking demand is expected to cease by mid-to-late May, leading to layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors by late May to early June.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, has detailed a timeline indicating when U.S. consumers will start facing trade-related shortages due to the tariffs on Chinese goods.

Despite some tariffs being paused, duties on Chinese imports have surged to 145%, intensifying trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Recent indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is already showing signs of recession, with declines in new orders, earnings outlooks, and capital spending plans.