BoJ Signals Cautious Rate Hikes Amid Global Trade Uncertainties and Wage-Driven Inflation

August 28, 2025
BoJ Signals Cautious Rate Hikes Amid Global Trade Uncertainties and Wage-Driven Inflation
  • While upward pressure on wages and prices exists, firms might prioritize cost-cutting over passing tariffs onto prices, potentially weakening wage growth and inflation.

  • Japan's economy has experienced moderate recovery, but uncertainties about future economic activity and prices remain, prompting cautious policy assessment.

  • The BoJ will pay close attention to corporate wage and price behaviors, which significantly impact inflation prospects.

  • The BoJ raised interest rates to 0.5% in January after ending a decade-long stimulus, and has maintained steady rates while revising inflation forecasts upward.

  • The upcoming September Tankan survey will be critical in evaluating the effects of global trade negotiations and business sentiment on the Japanese economy.

  • Potential increases in wages and their pass-through to prices could influence inflation and prompt further monetary policy adjustments.

  • Ongoing wage-driven price increases could influence household sentiment and inflation expectations, according to BoJ officials.

  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains cautious amid high global uncertainties, indicating it will continue raising interest rates if economic and inflation outlooks are favorable.

  • Global trade policy uncertainties continue to influence business and household sentiment worldwide, which could impact Japan's economy and others.

  • The BoJ will carefully assess economic data and trade developments to make appropriate monetary policy decisions in this uncertain environment.

  • Monitoring changes in firm behavior, such as wage and price-setting, is crucial for understanding the economic outlook and guiding policy.

  • Persistent food inflation and strong wage growth raise concerns about second-round price effects that might justify another rate hike.

Summary based on 7 sources


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