BoJ Signals Cautious Rate Hikes Amid Global Trade Uncertainties and Wage-Driven Inflation
August 28, 2025
While upward pressure on wages and prices exists, firms might prioritize cost-cutting over passing tariffs onto prices, potentially weakening wage growth and inflation.
Japan's economy has experienced moderate recovery, but uncertainties about future economic activity and prices remain, prompting cautious policy assessment.
The BoJ will pay close attention to corporate wage and price behaviors, which significantly impact inflation prospects.
The BoJ raised interest rates to 0.5% in January after ending a decade-long stimulus, and has maintained steady rates while revising inflation forecasts upward.
The upcoming September Tankan survey will be critical in evaluating the effects of global trade negotiations and business sentiment on the Japanese economy.
Potential increases in wages and their pass-through to prices could influence inflation and prompt further monetary policy adjustments.
Ongoing wage-driven price increases could influence household sentiment and inflation expectations, according to BoJ officials.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains cautious amid high global uncertainties, indicating it will continue raising interest rates if economic and inflation outlooks are favorable.
Global trade policy uncertainties continue to influence business and household sentiment worldwide, which could impact Japan's economy and others.
The BoJ will carefully assess economic data and trade developments to make appropriate monetary policy decisions in this uncertain environment.
Monitoring changes in firm behavior, such as wage and price-setting, is crucial for understanding the economic outlook and guiding policy.
Persistent food inflation and strong wage growth raise concerns about second-round price effects that might justify another rate hike.
Summary based on 7 sources
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Sources

Investing.com • Aug 28, 2025
BOJ’s Nakagawa says uncertainties remain high over impact of US tariff policy
Reuters • Aug 28, 2025
BOJ's Nakagawa warns of trade policy risks, looks to tankan for guidance
InvestingLive • Aug 28, 2025
BOJ's Nakagawa: Uncertainty remains high on impact of tariffs
Trading Economics • Aug 28, 2025
BoJ Signals Prudence in Future Rate Moves: Board Member Nakagawa