The US has targeted India with threats of tariffs mainly due to its purchase of discounted Russian oil, but such measures could backfire by pushing India closer to China and Russia, risking broader geopolitical tensions.

Trump's tariffs on Russian oil and the threat of further punitive actions may compel India to deepen its economic ties with China and Russia if it perceives itself as cornered, which could have significant political and economic repercussions.

India's political landscape, especially its rural population and farmers, makes it unlikely to capitulate to US demands without risking internal unrest, limiting Prime Minister Modi's negotiating options.

Targeting India with tariffs is considered illogical because India is not a strategic rival and is actively expanding its trade relationships, including free-trade agreements with the UK and negotiations with the EU, along with longstanding Japanese investments.

Western policymakers should exercise caution, as aggressive trade measures could alienate vital allies like India and destabilize the global economic order, echoing past mistakes during China's WTO accession.

The US aims to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India due to their Russian energy purchases, but faces obstacles in garnering support from the EU, Japan, and the UK, due to conflicting interests and internal disagreements.

Modi’s limited strategic options mean he risks making decisions that favor China and Russia rather than aligning with Western interests, especially under US pressure.

India’s government, under Prime Minister Modi, seeks to balance economic growth with domestic political considerations, especially in agriculture and labor sectors, which could be adversely affected by US tariffs.

Aggressive US tariffs could provoke protests and political instability in India, particularly if concessions are made on sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Pushing India into a strategic alliance with China and Russia would be a mistake, given India’s young population and significant economic potential.

A Western-led trade alliance imposing tariffs on India and China as a counter to Russia could backfire, harming global economic stability and undermining broader strategic goals.

US demands for India include ending Russian oil purchases and opening its agricultural sector, which could hurt rural workers and provoke domestic protests.