Krishna: Unpredictable U.S. Stance Stalls Quick India-U.S. Trade Deal Amid Global Trade Tensions
October 12, 2025
Krishna warns that the unpredictable stance of the U.S. makes a quick India-U.S. trade agreement unlikely, viewing current tactics as pressure to gain concessions.
China's rapid industrialization around 2000, facilitated by WTO membership, demonstrates how emerging economies can leverage multilateral trade rules to become superpowers.
The U.S. shifted from opposing free trade agreements to embracing them in the 1980s and 1990s, then focusing on bilateral negotiations to maximize leverage, driven by changing economic interests.
De-industrialization in the U.S., worsened by China's WTO entry, has become a key political issue, leading to protectionism and disrupting global trade norms.
Economist Pravin Krishna notes that the U.S. has been gradually distancing itself from the global trade system for over two decades, with this trend accelerating under Trump and Biden.
The EU's strict environmental and labor standards pose additional challenges for India in free trade negotiations, requiring strategic flexibility.
India aims to balance protecting vulnerable agricultural sectors with economic reforms in trade talks, considering phased protections or exemptions.
The decline in U.S. commitment to multilateral institutions like the WTO is linked to its preference for bilateral agreements, which are seen as more advantageous for exerting economic power.
Krishna suggests India should diversify trade through bilateral agreements and platforms like BRICS, but criticizes its cautious and self-protective approach.
The U.S. allegedly uses issues like Russian oil and H-1B visas as leverage to pressure India in ongoing trade negotiations, reflecting broader strategic motives.
The collapse of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism under Trump and its failure to be restored by Biden have worsened global trade tensions, weakening WTO rules.
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