China Faces Deflationary Pressures Amid Stalled Housing Market, Trade Tensions

October 15, 2025
China Faces Deflationary Pressures Amid Stalled Housing Market, Trade Tensions
  • Producer prices also fell by 2.3% year-on-year, marking a prolonged downturn that has impacted manufacturer profitability, although the rate of decline has slowed since August.

  • The decline in producer prices and consumer prices reflects persistent challenges such as weak domestic demand, a sluggish housing market, and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.

  • Despite these pressures, inflation is forecasted to rise in October, boosted temporarily by the Golden Week holiday, which could stimulate consumption and economic activity.

  • The Chinese government is expected to introduce further measures to support economic growth and stabilize inflation, especially as trade tensions and external pressures continue to pose risks.

  • Experts cite an unrecovered housing sector and a weak labor market as major factors contributing to fragile inflation stabilization.

  • The IMF has highlighted weak domestic demand and suggested fiscal measures targeting social spending and property to combat deflation.

  • China's consumer price index (CPI) declined by 0.3% year-on-year in September, signaling ongoing deflationary pressures despite a slight improvement from August, with month-on-month prices rising just 0.1%.

  • Broader economic challenges, including a prolonged real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and sluggish post-COVID-19 consumption, are weighing heavily on consumer sentiment.

  • Private consumption remains subdued, prompting expectations of additional government support to counter persistent deflation.

  • Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 1% year-on-year in September, reaching its highest level since February 2024 and signaling some underlying price stability.

  • Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating, with the U.S. considering a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, and China imposing stricter export controls on rare earth metals, further complicating economic relations.

  • Despite recent data showing a surge in September, China's overall economic growth continues to slow amid a property market downturn and external pressures from rising U.S. trade tariffs.

Summary based on 5 sources


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