Investing.com reports that major U.S. tech firms' capital expenditures on AI contributed about 1 percentage point to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with an estimated economic boost of around $145 billion.

While this AI-driven investment provided a short-term boost, its impact is expected to diminish in the medium term as growth momentum slows and hyperscaler investments decelerate.

Despite the growth, AI-related spending remains a modest part of total business fixed investment, which exceeded $4 trillion in Q2 2025, with AI investments accounting for most of the 8.1% annualized increase in business fixed investment during the first half of 2025.

Hyperscaler spending is projected to rise from $370 billion in 2025 to nearly $510 billion by 2027, but at a slower pace than during 2023-2025, when growth rates were between 60-70%.

Achieving sustained long-term productivity gains through AI investment alone would require a significant increase in business fixed investment, which is unlikely given current levels and near-full employment conditions.

Most AI-related spending in 2025 was concentrated in computer equipment, software, and data centers, led by giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, accounting for roughly 25% of nonresidential fixed investment in Q2 2025.

Infrastructure investments, such as utilities spending around $1.1 trillion from 2025 to 2029, are expected to have minimal impact on GDP growth, peaking at about 0.1 percentage point in 2025 and declining thereafter.