China has increased its leverage through dominance in critical minerals, resilient exports outside the U.S., and a recovering domestic economy, despite ongoing U.S. sanctions.

U.S. technology restrictions are causing immediate ripple effects across Asian supply chains, leading to increased volatility in Asian equities and currency pressures.

The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China are shifting from traditional tariff conflicts to battles over technology, minerals, and geopolitical influence, with Asia caught at the center of this rivalry.

China's control over rare earths and strategic materials, reinforced by a new export-control regime starting December 1, poses a significant risk to global clean energy and semiconductor industries.

Asian exporters are now challenged to diversify their mineral imports from countries like Australia, Canada, and Africa to avoid disruptions caused by these geopolitical shifts.

Economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan remain heavily dependent on Chinese intermediate goods and U.S. markets, making them vulnerable to changes in U.S. trade policies and technology controls.

While some economists predict a 'tactical truce' by the end of this year, the competition over technology and resources is expected to escalate in 2026, with no clear resolution in sight.

Trade between the U.S. and China has decreased but continues through rerouting via Southeast Asia, helping to mitigate some impacts of tariffs.

As strategic fragmentation grows, neutrality among Asian countries is diminishing, making diversification of trade partners and resource sources increasingly vital for their survival.