China Keeps Lending Rates Steady Amid Economic Slowdown and US Trade Tensions

October 20, 2025
China Keeps Lending Rates Steady Amid Economic Slowdown and US Trade Tensions
  • China's central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged in October, with the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, signaling a cautious monetary policy stance amid slowing economic growth.

  • The People's Bank of China maintained the LPR at 3.0% and the mortgage rate at 3.50%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a strategy to support the economy without immediate rate changes.

  • This rate hold comes ahead of a key policy meeting scheduled from October 20 to 23, where China will outline its economic and social development plans for the next five years.

  • Despite ongoing trade tensions with the US, China remains committed to supporting its economy through monetary easing and other measures, even as external pressures persist.

  • The decision to keep rates unchanged indicates a strategy to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy to counteract prolonged disinflation and support economic stability.

  • Recent economic data suggests China's economy is experiencing its slowest growth in a year during the third quarter, influenced by a prolonged property downturn and trade tensions, which heightens the need for additional stimulus.

  • Indicators point to manufacturing challenges and disinflation, prompting expectations of further economic stimulus to bolster growth.

  • Trade tensions with the US, including threats of tariffs and export controls, continue to weigh on China's economic outlook, adding pressure for policy easing.

  • Market analysts expect no rate changes before the release of third-quarter GDP data but remain cautious about potential easing later in the year to support the economy.

  • Policymakers are focused on maintaining liquidity to support government bonds and equities, with some economists forecasting a possible 10-basis-point rate cut and reserve requirement ratio reductions.

  • China's trade tensions with the US include increased export controls on rare earths and US threats of tariffs up to 100%, with new export curbs on software set to take effect from November 1.

  • The People's Bank of China has kept its seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged since the Federal Reserve resumed easing last month, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment.

Summary based on 3 sources


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