China's Q3 GDP Expected to Hit One-Year Low Amid Property Struggles and Trade Tensions
October 20, 2025
Market watchers are closely tracking China-U.S. trade negotiations, as an extension of the trade truce could bolster growth prospects and provide temporary support to equities and long-term yields.
China is set to release its third-quarter GDP figures, which are expected to show a slowdown to a one-year low, largely due to ongoing property market struggles and trade conflicts that could lead to additional stimulus measures.
In response to economic uncertainties, China has maintained its interest rates steady, with the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a cautious monetary stance ahead of a key government policy meeting.
Despite holding rates steady, analysts suggest the Chinese central bank might cut interest rates or reserve requirement ratios before the end of the year to stimulate economic activity, possibly leading to reductions in LPRs.
Trade tensions continue to escalate, with China increasing controls on rare earth exports and the U.S. threatening to raise tariffs to 100% and tighten software export curbs, reflecting a tit-for-tat escalation.
The upcoming Fourth Plenum, scheduled from October 20 to 23, will focus on outlining China's economic, political, and social development plans for the next five years, signaling future policy directions amid current economic challenges.
Summary based on 1 source
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Investing.com • Oct 20, 2025
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