U.S.-China Trade Tensions Persist in Cyclical Pattern, Avoiding Economic Decoupling

October 20, 2025
U.S.-China Trade Tensions Persist in Cyclical Pattern, Avoiding Economic Decoupling
  • The U.S. is actively working to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and is investing heavily in domestic industries like artificial intelligence, especially in data center financing.

  • Morgan Stanley analysts observe a cyclical pattern in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides avoiding a complete economic split due to the high costs involved.

  • Recent trade tensions escalated after China expanded controls over rare earth exports, prompting threats of retaliatory tariffs from the U.S., but there are signs of potential easing.

  • Both nations are carefully calibrating their actions to prevent severe economic fallout, maintaining a delicate and cautious balance in their relationship.

  • Analysts believe that the pattern of negotiations and temporary truces will likely continue rather than lead to a permanent trade peace or complete decoupling, reflecting the complex nature of their relationship.

  • The ongoing trade disputes are marked by cycles of tariffs, export controls, and market volatility, with no lasting resolution in sight.

Summary based on 1 source


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