A major worry for 2026 is an AI market bubble bursting, flagged by about a quarter of attendees, with potential negative effects on US consumer wealth, investment reliance, and energy/inflation dynamics.

The outlook covers developed markets including the US, UK, and Canada, plus Central and Eastern Europe, outlining expected rate decisions, inflation paths, and sector-specific factors for the week ahead.

Regionally, country-by-country outlooks (US, UK, Canada, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan) highlight near-term events such as rate moves and inflation trajectories alongside GDP components.

Inflation scenarios consider that tariff rebates and reductions, coupled with a dovish Fed, could spark a late-2026 resurgence, even as baseline cyclical factors suggest inflation would decline.

For 2026, inflation is expected to ease on cyclical grounds, but could rebound under certain policy and tariff scenarios, introducing greater volatility.

Geopolitics is viewed as a larger risk than AI, with 37% of respondents naming it the top risk for 2026, driven by the Russia-Ukraine dynamics and sanctions affecting energy markets and inflation.

Geopolitical developments, especially US-Russia-Ukraine dynamics and sanctions, are seen as a bigger potential shock to energy and inflation depending on peace progress and tariff policy.

In the near term, AI-related investment has fueled growth through 2025, but most equipment is imported, and AI could drive up US power demand by about 10% by 2030, posing inflation risks.

Despite risks, the global economy showed resilience through 2025, with an expectation that the disconnect between geopolitics and the real economy will persist into 2026.

Beyond AI and geopolitics, 2026 risk themes include trade tensions, budget strains, and labor market disruptions, even as 2025 demonstrated global growth resilience.

Overall, 2026 remains uncertain, but geopolitical tensions are likely to shape the dominant narrative while the economy remains comparatively resilient.

If an AI bubble bursts, three main channels affect the US: consumer spending with wealth effects, investment tied to AI equipment (mostly imported), and inflation driven by initial supply constraints and energy demand.

A poll of 294 webinar attendees signals ongoing monitoring of inflation, energy prices, and policy responses as central themes for the 2026 outlook.