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Commerzbank’s chief economist says the latest signals are positive and reinforce expectations that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates soon.

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Oil and energy trends and wage growth continue to shape inflation dynamics, with implications for ECB policy as the euro area targets around 2.0%.

Inflation remains a driver of monetary policy expectations, with the ECB aiming for about 2.0% to maintain price stability in the medium term.

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Germany’s 2025 inflation averaged 2.2%, roughly unchanged from 2024, while December 2025 slowed to 1.8% from 2.3% in November.

Energy costs eased in December, with petrol, electricity, and gas cheaper year over year, helping temper overall inflation.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.4% at year’s end.

Forecasts suggest 2026 inflation staying above 2%, with projections around 2.2% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027 from sources like the Ifo Institute.

Economists expect 2026 inflation to stay above 2% as Europe’s largest economy rebounds from recent price spikes.

Forecasts indicate inflation may remain above 2% in 2026 but is not expected to spike like the 2022–23 surge after the Ukraine invasion.