The IEA warns that fully implementing China's rare earth export restrictions could jeopardize about $6.5 trillion in downstream production across autos, high-tech, defense, and energy sectors outside China.

In addition to rare earths, China’s planned but postponed graphite export controls could disrupt roughly $300 billion of downstream production outside China, given China accounts for the majority of global processed graphite output.

The IEA notes that China’s rare earth export controls could affect up to $6.5 trillion in annual global economic activity outside China, with around $4.2 trillion impacting IEA member countries directly.

The piece emphasizes ongoing updates and urges readers to verify information, presenting a cautious, forward-looking view on mineral security and strategic stockpiling as economic insurance.

Tim Gould, the IEA’s chief economist, praised strategic reserve systems in Japan and South Korea and stressed the importance of diversifying supply chains.

Shifting to diversified sourcing is likely to raise near-term production costs for manufacturers as they move away from the most cost-efficient, geopolitically concentrated supplies.

The IEA calls for proactive, multilateral measures to build resilience in critical mineral supply chains amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The report highlights how a small volume of key minerals underpins large portions of the global economy and exposes the vulnerability of concentrated supply chains.

It notes vulnerabilities in global supply chains due to concentrated sources of critical minerals and their relatively small production volumes driving large economic value.

Western governments are pursuing alternative critical mineral supply chains, with public financing for new projects rising to $65 billion between 2023 and 2025, more than fourfold from earlier levels.

Public financing for new critical mineral projects reached about $65 billion in 2023–2025, signaling a concerted effort to diversify away from China.

Officials advocate building and coordinating alternative supply chains with free-world allies to mitigate reliance on China’s rare earths.