Market Turmoil: U.S. Stocks Plummet as Volatility-Sensitive Funds Trigger Massive Sell-Off

August 2, 2024
Market Turmoil: U.S. Stocks Plummet as Volatility-Sensitive Funds Trigger Massive Sell-Off
  • U.S. stocks are facing a notable decline, prompting increased selling activity from volatility-sensitive funds.

  • In the last two weeks, these funds have offloaded around $83.6 billion in U.S. equity futures, marking an 'extremely rare' level of selling, as noted by Nomura's Charlie McElligott.

  • The Cboe Volatility Index has surged to its highest point in over 16 months, signaling heightened market uncertainty.

  • The S&P 500 has declined approximately 5% from its record high on July 16, while the Nasdaq Composite has seen a 10% drop from its peak last month, suggesting a potential market correction.

  • The future selling behavior of these funds will largely depend on market volatility in the upcoming weeks, with a 1% daily change in the S&P 500 potentially triggering an additional $15 billion in selling.

  • Other volatility-sensitive strategies, such as trend-following commodity trading advisers (CTAs), have recently sold about $12.5 billion and could ramp up their selling to $36 billion if the S&P 500 continues to decline.

  • On the other hand, smaller daily changes in the market could lead these funds to reverse their positions, resulting in the purchase of approximately $14 billion worth of stocks.

  • Historically, volatility control funds have been buyers of equities during stable markets, but they are currently selling due to economic concerns and uncertainties surrounding tech earnings.

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