A significant realignment in global trade is underway as China, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) deepen their economic, strategic, and financial ties.

This trilateral engagement represents over 2.1 billion people and a combined GDP of approximately $25 trillion, underscoring its importance in the global trade architecture.

As global trade faces fragmentation, the China-ASEAN-GCC triangle may provide opportunities for shared prosperity across three of the world's most vital economic regions.

The convergence of the China-GCC and ASEAN-GCC relationships is creating a broader trilateral framework that could address global trade fragmentation caused by tariff shifts and geopolitical tensions.

Intra-ASEAN trade reached $759 billion in 2023, with foreign direct investment hitting a record $230 billion, establishing ASEAN as a leading recipient of global FDI among developing regions.

The GCC is providing ASEAN with essential capital investment and energy resources, fostering strategic co-development in infrastructure and green technologies.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds, with assets exceeding $4 trillion, are increasingly investing in Chinese infrastructure and technology, while China enhances long-term energy agreements and co-invests in Gulf economic zones.

ASEAN accounts for over 7.5% of global exports and serves as a crucial manufacturing and supply chain hub across various sectors, including electronics and pharmaceuticals.

The GCC is forging a multilayered partnership with ASEAN, which has a population of around 680 million and a combined GDP of more than $3.9 trillion.

Joint initiatives such as investment funds, special economic zones, and integrated logistics corridors are seen as foundational elements for this trilateral cooperation.

This emerging model emphasizes infrastructure connectivity, cross-border capital flows, and regulatory harmonization, which may strengthen multilateralism and the principles of the World Trade Organization.

Initially focused on hydrocarbons, the China-GCC relationship has evolved to encompass infrastructure, industrial investment, finance, and digital technologies.

China's partnership with the GCC has rapidly expanded, with two-way trade exceeding $300 billion in 2023, making China the largest trading partner for many Gulf states.