Experts warn that the ongoing trade tensions will have a significant impact on China's growth, with revised forecasts from institutions like the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS suggesting that the country may not meet its official growth target of around 5% for 2025.

The Communist Party's Politburo has pledged to support affected firms and workers as they navigate the economic consequences of the tariffs.

These tariffs, which are set at a staggering 145% on Chinese goods, have complicated China's already fragile economic recovery, which is further challenged by deflation and a property crisis.

In March 2025, Chinese producers had ramped up exports in anticipation of the tariffs, achieving a five-month high, but the implementation of these tariffs has abruptly halted this strategy.

As a result of these economic pressures, the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is expected to fall to 49.8, signaling a decline in manufacturing activity.

Historically, China's policymakers have relied on exports to drive economic recovery, but they have recently shifted focus towards boosting domestic demand.

In response to the economic challenges posed by the tariffs, analysts anticipate that Beijing will implement additional monetary and fiscal stimulus measures to support growth.

To further address these economic conditions, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is planning to introduce new policies in the second quarter of 2025.

Despite the challenges, China has denied any intention to negotiate with the U.S. regarding the tariffs, choosing instead to wait for a potential change in Washington's approach.

China's factory activity is projected to contract in April 2025 due to new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, as indicated by a recent Reuters poll.