Recto also emphasized that credit rating agencies remain unconcerned about the accumulation of public debt, which is reportedly being outpaced by economic growth.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 60.7% last year to 58.1% by 2031, although it reached 62% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the highest level since the previous administration.

The World Bank Group forecasts a gradual decrease in the fiscal deficit from 5.7% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% by 2031, reflecting a commitment to fiscal consolidation under the Marcos Jr. administration.

Capital Economics categorizes the Philippines alongside other emerging markets with strong public finances, such as India, Indonesia, and Thailand, although they all face some fiscal risks.

The report warns that without significant fiscal tightening and reduced borrowing costs, debt ratios may continue to rise, leading to increased sovereign risk premia.

As of April 2025, the national government's outstanding debt reached ₱16.75 trillion, with projections suggesting it will rise to ₱17.35 trillion by the end of the year.

In contrast, countries like China, the Czech Republic, and the UAE are recognized for their very low sovereign debt risks, highlighting disparities in fiscal health among emerging markets.

Several emerging markets, including Sri Lanka, Ukraine, and Zambia, are either in default or at high risk of default, while nations like Argentina and Turkey also face heightened sovereign debt risks despite some short-term stability.

The report underscores that while many emerging markets show solid fiscal metrics and credit ratings, they are not immune to potential adverse fiscal developments.

Sovereign debt risks across emerging markets have surged beyond pre-pandemic levels, with the median public debt-to-GDP ratio now at 58%, up from 50% in 2019.

Despite rising obligations, the Philippines is classified as having a 'low' sovereign debt risk, according to a recent report by Capital Economics.

Philippine Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto noted that the country's budget deficit, which is partly funded through borrowing, is on a downward trend.