Denmark's exports to the U.S., its largest market, are expected to grow only marginally by 0.9% in 2025, a significant slowdown from an earlier forecast of 4.3%, mainly due to tariffs and declining export volumes.

While Denmark benefits from a large savings surplus and strong public finances, its economy remains sensitive to global developments, especially in key sectors.

The Danish economy experienced strong growth of 3.7% in 2024, largely driven by pharmaceutical exports, including blockbuster drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.

However, Novo Nordisk, a major contributor to this growth, has recently revised its 2025 sales and profit forecasts downward, causing a 25% drop in its stock value and wiping out over €80 billion in market value.

Despite these setbacks, Novo Nordisk's first-half results remain strong, with a 22% increase in net profit and a 67% rise in Wegovy sales in Q2, though the company has also announced layoffs after nearly doubling its workforce over five years.

Novo Nordisk faces increased competition from Eli Lilly and challenges from counterfeit products, which limit its expansion potential in the obesity drug market.

Leadership changes at Novo Nordisk occurred with Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepping down as CEO and Maziar Mike Doustdar taking over in August 2025, as the company shifts focus toward operational improvements and cost efficiencies.

Novo Nordisk accounts for nearly 40% of Denmark's exports and has a market capitalization exceeding the country's GDP, highlighting the economy's vulnerability to its performance.

The company's employment in Denmark has nearly doubled over five years, but recent layoffs reflect ongoing adjustments amid market pressures.

U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals have impacted growth, though a recent EU-U.S. trade deal offers some stability for the sector.

Looking ahead, Denmark's GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 2.1% from 1.4%, driven by higher private and public consumption, despite the downward revision for 2025.

Overall, Denmark's economy remains resilient with high employment and inflation expected to stay below 2%, even amid sector-specific challenges.