Bangladesh Faces Decade-Low GDP Growth Amid Economic Challenges and Political Uncertainty

September 14, 2025
Bangladesh Faces Decade-Low GDP Growth Amid Economic Challenges and Political Uncertainty
  • Bangladesh's economy has slowed significantly, with GDP growth dropping to 3.97% in the fiscal year 2024-25, the lowest in a decade, due to tight monetary policies, import restrictions, and political uncertainty.

  • For the first time in three years, Bangladesh recorded a balance of payments surplus of $3.4 billion in 2024-25, supported by strong remittance inflows and export earnings, which helped stabilize the foreign exchange market.

  • Remittance inflows reached $2.422 billion in August 2025, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, boosting foreign exchange reserves to over $31 billion and easing pressures on the dollar market.

  • Exports declined by 2.93% in August 2025, with RMG exports falling 4.75% due to US tariff uncertainties and seasonal trends, although overall exports increased by 10.61% in July–August, driven by growth in textiles and engineering sectors.

  • Total import expenditure was $68.4 billion, only slightly higher than the previous year, with declines in capital machinery and intermediate goods indicating stagnation in investment and productivity.

  • Revenue collection in July increased by 24%, but a shortfall against targets persists, highlighting the need for tax reforms, especially in indirect taxes like VAT, to support sustainable growth.

  • The poverty rate has risen to 28%, nearly doubling since 2022, driven by high inflation, declining real wages, political instability, and pandemic impacts, with many households relying on debt and spending over half their income on food.

  • Inflation decreased to 8.29% in August 2025, the lowest in 37 months, but remains high, affecting purchasing power despite wage increases, with a 12-month average around 9.77%.

  • Private sector credit growth remains sluggish at 6.52%, reflecting weak investment demand, while increased government borrowing risks reducing credit availability for private sector growth.

  • Default loans surged to Tk 5.3 trillion, accounting for 27.09% of all loans, due to irregular disbursements, weak oversight, and loans to politically influential groups, threatening banking sector stability.

Summary based on 1 source


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