Israel and Turkey Compete for Influence in Syria Amid Escalating Tensions

April 29, 2025
Israel and Turkey Compete for Influence in Syria Amid Escalating Tensions
  • Recent remarks from former President Trump indicate a recognition of Turkey as a balancing power in the region, which could limit Israel's military operations in Syria.

  • On April 9, 2025, military officials from Israel and Turkey convened in Azerbaijan to discuss establishing a 'deconfliction channel' aimed at preventing direct confrontations in Syria.

  • Tensions have escalated further as Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israeli military actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

  • Experts suggest that while a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel is unlikely, the risk of proxy wars in Syria remains, potentially worsening the country's fragmentation.

  • The ongoing conflict in Syria has intensified as Israel and Turkey compete for influence following the exile of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.

  • The Trump administration is working to reduce hostilities between Turkey and Israel, aiming for a stable environment in Syria as U.S. troops plan to withdraw by the end of 2025.

  • An Israeli government report raises concerns that Sunni Islamist authorities in Syria may pose a greater threat than the Assad regime, particularly with Turkey's increasing influence in a post-Ba'ath Syria.

  • During a meeting on April 7, 2025, Trump praised Turkey's role in the collapse of the Assad regime and advised Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to adopt a more reasonable approach regarding Turkey's influence.

  • Turkey advocates for a unified Syrian state aligned with its interests, while Israel prefers a fragmented Syria to reduce security threats.

  • Despite these discussions, no concrete agreements were reached, as reported by both the Turkish Defense Ministry and the Israeli Prime Minister's office.

  • Turkey is looking to expand its military presence in northern Syria, seeking defense agreements and establishing military bases.

  • In response to the evolving situation, Israel has conducted airstrikes and military incursions in southern Syria to assert its dominance and is lobbying the U.S. to maintain a Russian military presence as a counter to Turkish influence.

Summary based on 2 sources


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Sources

Can Trump cool Turkey-Israel tensions over Syria?

Responsible Statecraft • Apr 29, 2025

Can Trump cool Turkey-Israel tensions over Syria?

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