Gonzaga is favored to win and cover the spread in Nashville, with projections placing them at -5.5 against Kentucky due to Kentucky's shooting struggles and Gonzaga's recent strong play.

Gonzaga’s defense has generally been stronger than North Carolina’s by prior metrics, suggesting Kentucky may struggle to score efficiently and that the under for the total could be value here.

Betting odds list Kentucky as a 5.5-point underdog with an over/under of 159.5 points, according to DraftKings.

Kentucky is dealing with injuries and depth concerns, notably uncertainty around point guard Jaland Lowe and reduced contributions from defenders like Jayden Quaintance and Mo Dioubate.

Kentucky sits at 5-3, with a mix of home wins against weaker non-conference foes and a troubling home loss to North Carolina, raising questions about offensive rebounding and frontline health.

This game is the first half of the Music City Madness showcase, with Illinois vs. Tennessee following the next day.

Gonzaga’s main shooting issues come from three-point range (about 32%), with outside threats Mario Saint-Supery and Adam Miller, the latter being a streaky but potential game-changer.

Gonzaga had been off for nine days after a lopsided loss to Michigan, fueling concerns about rust against a tougher defensive opponent.

The Kentucky-versus-Gonzaga matchup is framed against Kentucky’s mixed season form and Gonzaga’s stronger schedule strength, highlighting the contrast in current form.

Both teams enter Nashville at 5-3 and 7-1 respectively, each coming off recent losses that contextually differ in scale and impact.

Gonzaga had a strong start with several wins but were upset by Michigan, shooting a season-low field goal percentage in that loss, while Kentucky narrowly fell to North Carolina after leading in the second half.

Gonzaga’s recent results include a 101-61 blowout loss to Michigan, the biggest margin of defeat in coach Few’s tenure, with Kentucky posting a close 67-64 loss to North Carolina.

Historically, Gonzaga beat Kentucky in the most recent meeting last December in an overtime thriller, despite Kentucky’s earlier three-point shooting struggles in that game.

Gonzaga leans on Graham Ike and Braden Huff for scoring, with both around 15 points per game, while three-point shooting from Ike, Huff, and Grant-Foster has underperformed relative to peers.

Kentucky, under coach Mark Pope in his second season, is 5-3 and has yet to defeat a top-200 NET opponent this season, underscoring schedule strength concerns.

Gonzaga holds a 2-1 edge in the series, including last season’s Kentucky overtime win in this matchup.

Gonzaga has defeated multiple power-conference teams ranked in KenPom’s top 100, while Kentucky’s best win is over a low-ranked opponent, highlighting a disparity in recent schedules.

The game is framed as a crucial test for Kentucky to prove roster improvement and for Gonzaga to secure a signature win amid noted deficiencies.

The game is at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville with a 7:00 p.m. ET tip-off on ESPN2, between Gonzaga (No. 11) and Kentucky (No. 18).

Venue and broadcast: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee, with the game airing on ESPN2.

The matchup is scheduled for Friday, December 5, 2025, in Nashville, with a 7 p.m. ET start.

Kentucky recently lost to North Carolina 67-64 and went 1-for-13 from three, highlighting shooting regression and reliance on the arc entering this game.

Kentucky’s 3-point shooting trend has dipped this season, falling to around 35% from the arc, which could influence game planning and expectations.

With offensive struggles and limited transition scoring, Kentucky’s perimeter shooting may impact defensive emphasis and prop bets in this matchup.

The prior meeting saw Kentucky win in overtime as a six-point underdog, though Gonzaga shot poorly from three in that game.

Gonzaga’s defense is a strength, ranking highly in KenPom defensive efficiency and supported by strong length and dependable depth.

Gonzaga emphasizes interior scoring and 2-point efficiency, while Kentucky defends the arc well and Gonzaga shines on offensive rebounding defense and creating turnovers.

With Kentucky missing core players and prowling guards, Gonzaga’s defense and balance may prove too much for Kentucky in this matchup.

A same-game parlay includes Gonzaga -5 and over 159.5, with prop notes such as Graham Ike over 16.5 points and Braden Huff/ Mario Saint-Supery bets.

Historical betting trend notes show Gonzaga hitting the first-half over in a significant portion of recent games.

Injuries of note for Kentucky include Dioubate being out and Quaintance not yet debuting, with no major Gonzaga injuries reported.