Undefeated run odds are slim even for top contenders, as the data show the Arizona Wildcats with a 44.4% chance to be undefeated on January 1 fading to 5.9% by February 1 and down to about 0.14% for the regular season, with their first projected loss coming at BYU on January 26.

The Michigan Wolverines are favored to go undefeated on January 1 at 91.1%, but their chances drop to 28.0% by February 1 and 2.6% for the regular season, with potential late-February losses in an 11-day window at Purdue and Illinois and a neutral-site game versus Duke.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are projected to be the first to falter, holding a 9.4% chance of remaining undefeated on January 1 and essentially zero probability through the rest of the regular season, with a first loss expected December 13 at Illinois.

The analysis notes that even the strongest 40-0 contenders are unlikely to stay undefeated, as several top teams are expected to drop wins during conference play, with Vanderbilt mentioned as a possible but unlikely challenger to stay perfect.

The piece uses KenPom win probabilities to assess which undefeated teams entering the 2025-26 season are most vulnerable to losing first, projecting outcomes on January 1, February 1, and at the season’s end.

Miami (OH) stands out as an outlier from power conferences, with a 7.0% chance of remaining undefeated on January 1 and virtually zero probability through the rest of the season; their first loss is projected for December 16 at Wright State.