Blue Origin is scaling up production to as many as 150 upper-stage boosters per year, but achieving a high flight rate will take time.

Quilty’s forecast for Blue Origin’s New Glenn projects eight launches in 2028, twelve in 2029, and sixteen in 2030, with Henry noting conservative assumptions about upside.

A potential wildcard is the U.S. military’s national security launch program, which currently has two lanes: Lane 1 for higher-risk tolerance missions and Lane 2 for SpaceX and ULA; Lane 1 could rise from 30–60 to about 170 launches, and Lane 2 from 54 to 79 launches, over 2025–2029.

The surge in demand for military launches was not captured in Quilty’s model because Henry expects government leverage will force SpaceX to fulfill priority launches, including satellites like the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SBAMTI) constellation.

Henry argues SpaceX is already building a significant number of planned satellites and expects government pressure will influence actual launch allocations, potentially shifting market dynamics.