Australia's Underlying Inflation Surges Past RBA Target, No Rate Cuts Expected Before 2025
November 27, 2024
Despite this rise in underlying inflation, the annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation remained stable at 2.1% for the year ending in October, unchanged from September and below market expectations.
During its November meeting, the RBA acknowledged the decline in inflation but emphasized that more favorable quarterly reports are needed before considering any monetary easing.
Current cash rates are held at 4.35%, with market expectations indicating no interest rate cuts until at least May 2025, despite some speculation about potential reductions.
Looking ahead, the RBA projects that inflation will sustainably meet its annual target by 2026, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Dairy product prices fell by 1.8% over the past year, a notable turnaround from a previous inflation rate of 7.8% in this category.
Economists have noted that while overall inflation has eased, persistent underlying inflation remains a challenge, influenced by factors such as pandemic-related policies and supply chain issues.
Significant price drops in electricity and automotive fuel have contributed to the stable CPI, with electricity prices experiencing a remarkable 35.6% annual decrease due to government energy rebates.
Transport fuel prices decreased by 11.5%, driven by lower global oil prices linked to reduced demand from China and easing geopolitical tensions.
The RBA is closely monitoring these inflation figures, particularly quarterly data, to determine if inflation can sustainably remain within the target range.
Governor Michele Bullock and the RBA are focused on ensuring that inflation trends align with their long-term targets, balancing the need for economic stability with inflation control.
In October, trimmed mean inflation, which reflects underlying inflation trends, increased to 3.5%, surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%.
Rental prices saw a 6.7% annual increase, slightly up from 6.6% in September, although this was mitigated by increased government rent assistance.
Summary based on 6 sources
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Sources

The Guardian • Nov 27, 2024
Inflation flat at 2.1% as RBA likely to sit tight on interest rates
The Sydney Morning Herald • Nov 27, 2024
The ice-cream index: How dairy is licking inflation
Investing.com • Nov 27, 2024
Australia CPI misses expectations in Oct, underlying inflation rises
Investing.com • Nov 27, 2024
Australia monthly inflation steady in October, core ticks higher