RBA Eyes February 2025 Rate Cut Amid Falling Inflation and Job Market Recovery
January 8, 2025
Currently, the inflation rate stands at 2.3%, reflecting a significant decrease from earlier highs.
ANZ has forecasted that Australian borrowers may soon experience relief, with anticipated interest rate cuts expected in February.
The trimmed mean inflation rate fell to 3.2% in November, indicating a positive trend, although it remains above the RBA's target.
Market expectations for a February rate cut have increased from 66% to 75%, reflecting growing confidence in the potential for monetary easing.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely monitoring inflation trends and is considering a potential interest rate cut during its upcoming board meeting in February 2025.
In November 2024, the number of job vacancies rose to 344,000, marking the first increase since May 2022, although this figure remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Food and housing costs were the primary drivers of inflation in November, while electricity prices decreased more slowly due to recent government rebates.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed optimism regarding the government's progress in managing inflation, highlighting a notable decline from over 6% when the government took office.
Overall, markets are anticipating a full interest rate cut by April 2025, with predictions of further reductions throughout the year.
The RBA aims to bring inflation back to its target range of 2-3% by the end of 2025, a significant reduction from previous levels.
Despite facing economic challenges, Australia's labor market remains robust, with job vacancies rebounding in the November quarter after a prolonged decline.
The RBA has kept interest rates steady at 4.35% for over a year, a substantial rise from the pandemic low of 0.1%, as part of its strategy to control inflation while supporting employment.
Summary based on 8 sources
Get a daily email with more Macroeconomics stories
Sources

The Guardian • Jan 8, 2025
November inflation rises to 2.3% amid speculation over pre-election interest rate cut from RBA
The Sydney Morning Herald • Jan 8, 2025
Pre-election interest rate cut on the cards despite inflation uptick
Investing.com • Jan 8, 2025
Australia's core inflation slows, keeping door open to Feb rate cut
Investing.com • Jan 8, 2025
Australia CPI inflation rises more than expected in Nov, spurs hawkish RBA bets