Germany's government has reached an agreement with the SPD and Union to implement a lottery system for military conscription, which would be used if voluntary enlistment falls short, with the selection based on questionnaires filled out by eligible young men.

The proposed conscription system aims to address staffing shortages by potentially imposing at least six months of mandatory service on those selected through the lottery, while avoiding the conscription of entire large cohorts due to logistical challenges.

This initiative is part of a broader plan to increase the armed forces to 260,000 personnel, with a long-term goal of reaching 460,000 including reserves, and the government is preparing a bill to reintroduce conscription if voluntary recruitment remains insufficient.

Public opinion on reintroducing conscription remains divided, with a recent survey showing 54% support and 41% opposition, and support is stronger among older voters, while younger adults largely oppose it.

Legal opinions from constitutional experts affirm that a lottery system would be compatible with the German Basic Law, and the coalition leadership is optimistic about passing the legislation, with some emphasizing the fairness of the lottery method.

The coalition plans to discuss the new conscription law on Tuesday, inform the public on Wednesday, and hold a first reading in the Bundestag on Thursday, though details are still being finalized.

A draft law detailing the new conscription system is set to be introduced to the Bundestag, with parties preparing for debate and review of the legislation.

Since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, public support for military draft has increased, with a notable shift toward favoring conscription since March 2024.

Legal debates continue over whether a lottery violates principles of fairness and rationality, with some experts arguing it is a legitimate method for selection, while opposition parties criticize it as arbitrary and unjust.

Opposition parties, including the Left and Greens, strongly oppose the reintroduction of conscription, citing ethical concerns and the high unwillingness among young people to serve, while the AfD remains divided on the issue.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is expected to specify the number of recruits needed and the criteria for mandatory service, which would only be enacted if voluntary recruitment proves inadequate, with plans to set recruitment targets over the coming years.

The agreement also involves defining clear benchmarks for mandatory service, with the government considering criteria to decide when compulsory conscription should be activated based on recruitment needs.