Long-term projections are conditional scenarios, not firm predictions, built on varying assumptions about life expectancy and birth rates.

Net immigration—arrivals minus departures—contributes to downward adjustments in the projections.

Policy discussions on pension reform continue, including ideas like counting credit years instead of fixed retirement ages and potentially including civil servants and politicians in contributions; a government pension commission will start addressing these issues next week.

Germany’s population is aging and is projected to shrink over time, with mid-2025 population around 83.5 million and a central scenario for 2070 near 74.7 million, though estimates range from about 63.9 to 86.5 million depending on fertility and migration.

Across projections, the share of people aged 67 and older rises to roughly 20.5–21.3 million by 2038, meaning up to 4.5 million more seniors than today.

The current ratio stands at about 33 retirees per 100 working-age people, with forecasts projecting 43 to 61 retirees per 100 workers by 2070 under different fertility and migration scenarios.

Regional differences are pronounced: eastern Germany is expected to shrink in all scenarios, western states may stay stable, and city-states like Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen could grow with sustained migration.

Western metropolitan and rural areas may stabilize under higher migration, while eastern rural areas could shrink by 14–30% by 2070, with potential growth in city-states under higher migration.

Lower birth rates, inflation and recession uncertainty, housing affordability, and political uncertainty are dampening births, while immigration’s compensatory effect is waning.

Destatis’ updated projections incorporate scenarios for births, life expectancy, and migration and indicate an aging trend that is steeper than earlier forecasts.

The official population forecast was published by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden as part of the Bevölkerungs­vorausberechnung.

Key drivers include persistently low birth rates and reduced net migration, which slow population growth and accelerate aging.