The European Commission argues that signing the deal now is economically, diplomatically, and geopolitically crucial, and intends to move forward by year-end.

The EU–Mercosur trade deal, a large-scale agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc, faces potential derailment due to French and other European opposition and farmer concerns about increased competition and environmental impacts.

France, backed by Poland, Austria, and the Netherlands, is pushing for delays, arguing that current terms are unacceptable and that conditions for a signing vote have not been met, potentially deferring the decision to 2026 or later.

A key upcoming milestone is the Parliament vote on the safeguard clause to shield farmers from unfair competition, with debates over its threshold and implementation.

Meanwhile, the Commission has proposed tighter market monitoring and a safeguard clause; Members of the European Parliament are voting on the safeguard, with some amendments on reciprocity under consideration.

Even if national governments approve, the European Parliament is targeting early 2026 for ratification, amid about 145 lawmakers seeking EU Court of Justice review over the split-ahead approach.

The negotiations are embedded in a broader context that links Mercosur to other EU priorities, including the EU budget and frozen Russian assets, which influence bargaining dynamics.

A reinforced instrument to shield European farmers from Latin American imports is expected to be debated and voted on by the EU Parliament this week.

The Parliament’s December 16 vote on a bilateral safeguard for farm products adds uncertainty, with questions about reciprocity rules clashing with WTO guidance and potentially unworkable provisions.

Italy is positioned as an intermediary or arbiter in the negotiations, reflecting a delicate diplomatic stance within the EU.

Trade chief signals a fast-tracked agenda on multiple fronts, with efforts to finalize talks with India around late January, signaling urgency beyond Mercosur.

The safeguard clause could force the EU to suspend tariff concessions for sensitive products like beef and poultry under certain conditions, requiring alignment between Parliament and Council on a common line.