The EU is preparing a tightened migration pact that would include offshore return hubs for asylum seekers whose applications are rejected and harsher penalties for those who refuse to leave, aimed at hardening policy amid pressure from far-right factions.

Ministers from all 27 member states gathered in Brussels to discuss reforms, including a ‘safe third country’ concept and a list of safe origins to streamline asylum decisions.

The pact would create legal frameworks allowing EU states to negotiate with non-EU countries willing to take returned migrants, building on, but differing from, earlier Italy-Albania efforts which faced legal hurdles.

Germany’s exact obligations under the reform remain unsettled, with some analyses suggesting it may already bear more asylum procedures than its share and may not require additional commitments.

A new distribution system is slated to take effect in June, but the specific allocations remain confidential and politically contentious.

Critics, including churches, aid groups, and Amnesty International, say the measures threaten fundamental rights and align with a hard-right political narrative, with warnings that those with removal orders retain rights.

Germany could leverage its current handling of asylum cases, while other states might offer non-acceptance of migrants in exchange for financial or material support.

There is precedent from Italy-Albania deals and Netherlands-Uganda plans, alongside ongoing legal and political obstacles to offshore processing.

Negotiations on the redistribution mechanism are expected to be tough, with a final decision due by year-end despite interior ministers’ political reservations.

There is a move toward recognizing other EU states’ return decisions, with possible future mandatory recognition, though Germany worries about legal challenges.

The final Verordnung must pass the European Parliament, and the proposal includes a clause limiting deportations to countries meeting human rights standards, though critics find the trajectory worrying.

The Council will negotiate with the European Parliament on the legislative texts, with the solidarity pool needing legal clearance and formal sign-off by the end of 2025.