Bitcoin Faces Critical Test as Short-Term Holder Losses Threaten Market Stability

February 25, 2025
Bitcoin Faces Critical Test as Short-Term Holder Losses Threaten Market Stability
  • Glassnode notes that breaking above the 1.0 SOPR level can indicate a shift in momentum, while failing to do so may exacerbate selling pressure.

  • Despite the current trading price of Bitcoin being above $95,000, a significant drop to $57,000 is considered unlikely due to strong support levels.

  • Key realized prices for Bitcoin holders include $89,000 for ETFs, $59,000 for Binance traders, and $57,000 for miners, with historical trends indicating that falling below the miners' level could signal the start of bear markets.

  • Currently, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $94,500, having recently declined by 1% in a day and 9% over the past month, contributing to uncertainty in market trends.

  • If Bitcoin cannot reclaim the 1.0 SOPR level, it may lead to increased selling pressure, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

  • Glassnode analysts highlight that the short-term holders' SOPR Multiple is currently in the red zone, suggesting that these investors are experiencing heightened losses.

  • Despite potential short-term volatility, experts like CryptoQuant's CEO assert that Bitcoin's overall bull market remains intact, emphasizing the importance of key realized price levels.

  • Earlier in 2025, the SOPR for short-term holders fell below 1, reflecting that these investors were realizing losses amid bearish price movements.

  • Bitcoin's on-chain data is currently indicating a critical retest of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders, which sits at the break-even point of 1.0.

  • This situation raises concerns that newer or less committed investors may panic sell if they cannot secure profits as the SOPR approaches the break-even point.

  • The last significant retest of the 1.0 SOPR level occurred in January 2025, resulting in a brief bullish breakout that ultimately faded due to weak conviction among short-term holders.

  • Historically, successfully breaking above the 1.0 threshold signals renewed bullish momentum, while failing to do so often leads to increased selling pressure.

Summary based on 3 sources


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